Iraq's most influential and important politician. Muqtada al-Sadr, is back, according to U.S. intelligence reports widely disseminated in the media. Says the New York Times:

"Not even American officials privy to classified intelligence on Mr. Sadr’s return pretend to be certain what he has in mind. ... 'There is a range of speculation on what it might mean,' one Defense Department official said. ... 'I don’t believe the intelligence community has come to a firm assessment on the meaning of his return to Iraq.'"

Tony Cordesman, the conservative CSIS scholar, speculates intelligently:

Sadr can also publicly play the “nationalist,” and seek Sunni support as well as broader Shi'ite support. In doing so, he can ride a wave of public opinion that sees the US as having failed, Coalition forces as a “threat,” and is deeply frustrated with a weak Maliki government. ... It is less clear that Sadr is “winning” relative to SCIRI, but if reports that Hakim is truly ill with lung cancer are true, this could seriously shift the balance of power. SCIRI does seem to be losing political influence and strength in the oil-rich southeast, while Sadr's Mahdi Army remains a major force.

Sadr can also benefit from the inchoate nature of Sunni politics. There still is no meaningful national or broad Sunni political party that has strong popular Sunni Arab support. The elected Sunni politicians are weak and have small bases of support. They also have shown little bargaining skill and power in the conciliation debates, often delaying without winning. As a result, Sadr can play the Shi'ite card with Shi'ites, and to some extend play the nationalist card with fragmented Sunni elements like those in Anbar.

Young and inexperienced, Sadr has learned a lot during four years of war and four years, before that, leading an underground movement in Saddam's Iraq. He's talking to Sunni tribal leaders, insurgents, and political Sunnis in parliament. Writes the Post, which has been covering Sadr's movement well lately: "Sadr's movement is wooing Sunni leaders and purging extremist elements in his Mahdi Army militia." An d the Post quotes General Odierno speculating hopefully that Sadr might be "ready to negotiate behind the scenes."

Behind the scenes, maybe. But Sadr isn't going to give up his trump card: militant opposition to the occupation of Iraq. Every day that Prime Minister Maliki continues to support the occupation, Sadr grows stronger.