You won't find a more concise statement of potential Bush administration trickery on Iran than this, by Ned Walker, the president of the Middle East Institute:
Is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice engaged in the same kabuki dance that we witnessed in the lead-up to the Iraq war?Despite the lessons of Iraq, there are still advocates in the administration pushing for regime change in Iran through military action. However, they recognize that unless the United States exhausts the diplomatic course, they will face extraordinary opposition to any attack. When coupled with the obvious downside of military action, which our military has been making clear, then it is not at all a slam dunk that would warrant attacking Iran. However, if diplomatic options are exhausted, then the odds of President Bush giving his assent to avoid a nuclear-armed Iran increase substantially.
From the earliest days of the Bush administration, then Secretary of State Colin Powell tried moving the Iraq problem to the United Nations but faced strong opposition from some in the Pentagon and in Vice President Dick Cheney's office. They were afraid he would succeed, which would make direct military intervention and regime change more difficult, if not impossible.
It was only as these individuals grew to believe that Powell didn't have a chance of succeeding that they agreed to let him try and fail, thus setting the stage for military action.
If this is true, then Rice's initiative presumes failure. There is a poison pill in the condition Rice set that "as soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities, the United States will come to the table."
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, having staked out a position of defiance and strength, must now recant if he is to sit down with the Americans. Who will take bets that Ahmadinejad will comply?
Comments (1)
Given the shocking American indfference to the illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq I would think the Bush administration well-advised to attack Iran - and the sooner the better, politically speaking. There must be people in the Bush administration possessing a sense of realism, and the profound likelihood of continued indifference among the press and people of the United States persuasively argues that Mr. Bush has himself almost nothing to lose by attacking Iran. The American and Iranian people do, of course, but the wishes of the former have never made any impression upon Mr. Bush and I think it safe to say he could care even less about those of the latter.
It's really time that other responsible nations in the world reign-in our runaway president and his assemblage of bumbling fools. A few well-chosen words from the Russians and the Chinese, which former Sino-Soviet pact may reappear of exasperated necessity in curbing the United States, ought to be enough to force a reconsideration of policy in Washington. We famously avoid armed conflict with those who appear at least as strong as we are, and a defense agreement between Russia, China and Iran would send the Bush administration scurrying back into its bunny-hole.
Posted by Anonymous | June 17, 2006 6:59 PM
Posted on June 17, 2006 18:59