Yesterday I spoke at length with Aiham al-Sammarae, the former Iraqi minister who has spent the past year trying to mediate between the resistance and the United States. What follows is a partial transcript of that talk, which touches on the aftermath of the Cairo peace conference that took place two weeks ago and the coming Iraqi elections.

Q. What happened at the recent Cairo conference sponsored by the Arab League? Was the resistance able to participate? Did you go?
A. No, I didn’t go. Actually, the Arab League invited me, but in the last couple days the government of Iraq said they don’t want anybody who is resistance, or ex-Baathist, or—well, they put too many or’s. So the Arab League sent the list to them, and the prime minister took off the names he didn’t like. He said, if they come, he won’t go. And one of them was my name. I told those guys in Cairo that it was a joke, since he has to sit down with people who don’t like him. But I didn’t go. And really, nobody from the Baathists or the resistance went. … So whatever they decided there has no meaning, because they didn’t sit with the resistance. But at least they recognized the right of the Iraqis to resist [in their statement].

It is important to follow it up. But since the conference they look like they are more enemies than before. And one Sunni leader said he was taking back his signature on the conference document, since the government is not doing anything.

Q. But I read that some resistance people went to Cairo, but not to the conference itself.
A. Yes, some resistance went to Cairo and they met with Arab League secretary-general. They met him the day before, and they left before the meeting started. So there wasn’t a meeting between the government and the resistance, or between the resistance and the United States.

Q. And Talabani’s statement that he would meet with the resistance.
A. Well, at least he recognized that some of the resistance are not terrorists. But it is election time, and he would like to do something to get more votes, since there are some Kurds who sympathize with the resistance. So he wants to get more votes.

Q. Is there any movement forward on talks between the resistance and talks with the government and the United States, since Ambassador Khalilzad?
A. There is something going on between the resistance and the United States. I don’t think there will be any serious talks with the government [of Iraq] until the election is over, because … everybody from the government is saying, There is no resistance—everybody is terrorist.

Q. What was the reaction from the religious Shiite parties about Khalilzad’s statement about talking to the resistance?
A. The Shiite parties, if they are religious and follow [Ayatollah Ali] Sistani or [cleric Muqtada] Sadr, they say, “This is a conspiracy, now they want to talk to the Sunnis.” If they are more educated, religious or secular, they say, We need to start talks, we need to save our country. So if America can do that, we appreciate it. Some Shia come to my office here, and they say they like the idea of America talking to the Sunnis.

Q. And the election?
A. The religious Shiite coalition will never make it again. The time is over for them. They had their chance, and they blew it. In the last seven months they did everything bad, took over all the ministries, put their people in, and everything went to hell. There are no jobs, there is no security. People are asking, What the hell are those guys doing?

And then the Sunnis will win a lot more votes. The [Shiites] will get something like 60 or 70 seats in the next assembly, out of 275. The party of [Iyad] Allawi will get something around 40, the Kurds will get around 50. The Sunni coalition, the religious parties will get 35, and the Sunni seculars will get 40-45.

Q. What is the name of your party?
A. I am running in Baghdad, for the Iraq Independence party, and we are running in another six provinces.

Q. Are there any talks between the resistance and the United States, or the Iraqi government, underway?
A. Even since Cairo, to the best of my knowledge nobody is talking with the Baathists, and nobody is talking with the resistance. There are some talks in the field, but there are no central talks run by the ambassador or by people on behalf of the secretary of state. They are talking with some Sunni groups, and the ambassador meets some Sunni groups to deliver messages, But he’s not negotiating.

Q. Is there any committee emerging to represent the resistance?
A. Until now, there are scared to be public, because they are afraid that the government will come right away to clean them up if they announce their names. But, for instance, the Association of Muslim Scholars, although they function separately, well, I think they meet regularly with the resistance, and they have relations, and they have liaisons. … And in fact the resistance is getting stronger, not weaker. But I keep advising them to start talking politics, and to be involved now.

I believe the right solution is, that they sit down all together and negotiate. Otherwise, we are going to civil war. If those guys, the religious Shiites come back, we are going to civil war. Nobody can take them anymore.

Q. What are the prospects for Chalabi?
A. He is buying votes like crazy. He is spending more than anyone else, and I wonder from where he gets his money. But even with all this money, all this buying, still I don’t see he will emerge with any more than 10 seats, if he is lucky, lucky, lucky. And in Iraq now, everyone is doing everything to cheat, to buy votes. Everyone is cheating in the elections. And the United States knows it.

Q. So what are the prospects for the second Cairo-sponsored conference in February?
A. It clearly depends on the election. If the election goes well, there will be a conference. If the [Shiites] come back, there will be no conference.